The UK housing market is always a focal point of discussion, and 2024 has proven to be no different. From shifting house prices to unprecedented sales activity and evolving buyer behaviour, this year is shaping up to be a significant one for homeowners, sellers, landlords, and investors alike. Whether you’re preparing to sell, considering an investment, or optimising your property portfolio, understanding these trends is essential.

Let’s take a deep dive into the data shaping the market this year.

UK House Prices: Steady Growth Despite Challenges

Average asking prices for new sellers dropped by 1.4% this month, marking the second consecutive decline. This trend may reflect economic uncertainty tied to pre- and post-budget announcements, which can impact confidence among buyers and sellers. Despite this, the broader picture is far from bleak.

Over the 12 months leading up to September 2024, house prices have increased by 1%, slightly up from the 0.9% growth recorded the previous year. While this growth may seem modest, it reflects a market that has remained resilient in the face of affordability challenges and a large supply of homes for sale.

Regional Performance: Winners and Losers

Breaking the data down regionally reveals a more nuanced picture:

• Above-average growth:
  • The North East and North West recorded price increases just above 2%.
  • Scotland saw a rise of 2.4%, and Northern Ireland led with a robust 5.6% increase.
• Declines in higher-priced regions:
  • The East and South East saw slight drops of 0.2%.

This regional disparity underscores an important trend: demand is stronger in areas with more affordable housing, where price inflation is outpacing the national average. Buyers seeking value for money are driving growth in these areas, while higher-priced regions remain more subdued.

As we approach the end of 2024, house prices are projected to finish 2% higher than at the start of the year, offering an optimistic outlook for sellers and homeowners considering their next steps.

Sales Activity: The Market’s Resilience Shines

Sales activity has been one of the most remarkable aspects of the UK property market in 2024.

• A growing pipeline: The sales pipeline is now the largest it has been in four years, with its total value up 30% compared to this time last year.
• Increased sales agreements: New sales agreed have risen by an impressive 26% year-on-year.
• More sellers entering the market: The number of new sellers coming to market has grown by 6% compared to last year, reflecting growing confidence among homeowners.

This activity paints a picture of a buoyant market. Buyers are motivated by improved affordability, while sellers are increasingly confident in listing their homes. For investors, these trends signal opportunities in a vibrant marketplace where competition remains strong, yet favourable.

Buyer Behavior: Who’s Driving the Market?

Buyers have been pivotal in fueling the market’s energy this year, driven by favourable mortgage conditions. Mortgage rates, now at their lowest in two years, have encouraged more activity across all buyer demographics.

The Bank of England’s second base rate cut of the year, down to 4.75%, has played a significant role in improving affordability and enticing both new entrants and those looking to upgrade.

A Breakdown of Buyer Demographics

1. First-time buyers (36% of all sales):
2. This group has been leading the charge in 2024, taking advantage of improved affordability and market stability.
3. Homeowners moving with mortgages (31%):
4. These buyers are capitalising on competitive rates to either climb the ladder or downsise, depending on their needs.
5. Cash buyers (27%):
6. Representing a mix of mortgage-free homeowners and investors, this group remains a steady force in the market.
7. Buy-to-let landlords (7%):
8. Facing higher borrowing costs and increasing regulation, this group has been more cautious, representing a smaller share of buyers compared to previous years.

Why Are First-Time Buyers Thriving While Landlords Face Challenges?

The prominence of first-time buyers this year has raised an interesting question: why are they flourishing while buy-to-let investors face mounting hurdles? The answer lies in a few key factors.

1. Affordability Shifts:
2. Rising rents and declining mortgage rates have made homeownership a more attractive and cost-effective option. For instance, mortgage repayments for first-time buyers are now 17% cheaper than renting, compared to just 2% cheaper a year ago.
3. Ex-Rental Properties:
4. With many landlords exiting the market, a significant number of these properties are being purchased by first-time buyers. These homes tend to be more affordable, providing a gateway to homeownership.
5. Challenges for Landlords:
   • Higher borrowing costs are eroding profitability for buy-to-let investors.
   • Tax changes, such as increased stamp duty and reduced mortgage interest tax relief, have added financial pressure.
   • Regulatory changes are increasing complexity, prompting some landlords to reconsider their positions.

The Exit of Landlords: A Market Shift

Landlords selling their properties now account for 12% of all property listings, reflecting the growing pressures in the buy-to-let sector.

Why Are Landlords Selling?

• Taxation changes: Higher stamp duty and adjustments to mortgage interest tax relief have reduced the profitability of rental investments.
• Higher mortgage rates: Those on variable rates or nearing the end of fixed terms face increased costs, squeezing margins further.
• Increased legislation: Greater regulation in the private rented sector has added complexity and expense, making the sector less appealing for some.

Where Do These Properties Go?

• Remaining in the rental sector: Around 40% of ex-rental properties are sold to new buy-to-let investors or withdrawn and re-let by the original landlords.
• Sold to home seekers: The majority—approximately 60%—are purchased by first-time buyers and other home seekers, reducing the supply of rental properties.

This trend creates opportunities for prospective homeowners while adding pressure to an already tight rental market.

Regional Focus: Opportunities in Wolverhampton and the West Midlands

For homeowners, sellers, landlords, and investors in Wolverhampton, the current market offers unique advantages.

• Strong growth: Wolverhampton is one of the UK’s top-performing areas, with house prices and rents seeing significant increases.
• High demand: The West Midlands region as a whole continues to outperform national trends, offering excellent opportunities for property investors and sellers alike.

Whether you’re considering selling or investing, Wolverhampton’s dynamic market makes it an attractive prospect.

Looking Ahead to 2025: What’s Next for the Market?

As we move into 2025, the UK housing market is expected to remain resilient and full of opportunities for homeowners, sellers, landlords, and investors.

Key Trends to Watch

1. Stamp Duty Changes:
2. Activity is likely to surge in the early months of 2025 as buyers and sellers aim to complete transactions before anticipated stamp duty changes take effect.
3. Mortgage Rates:
4. Currently averaging 4–4.5%, rates are expected to decline slightly, further easing affordability pressures and encouraging more activity in the market.
5. Continued Regional Growth:
6. Affordable areas like Wolverhampton and the West Midlands are expected to remain hotspots for both buyers and investors.

Takeaways for Sellers, Buyers, and Investors

2024’s housing market has proven dynamic, resilient, and full of opportunities. However, success in this evolving landscape requires a strategic approach.

• For sellers: Take advantage of strong buyer demand and competitive pricing to achieve your goals.
• For buyers: With declining mortgage rates and increasing opportunities in ex-rental properties, now is a great time to make your move.
• For investors: Focus on high-growth regions like Wolverhampton and the West Midlands to secure stronger returns, but stay informed about the challenges in the buy-to-let sector.

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re a homeowner, potential seller, landlord, or investor, the UK housing market in 2024 is full of exciting possibilities. By staying informed and proactive, you can make the most of these trends and position yourself for success in 2025 and beyond.

If you’d like personalised advice or support in navigating the market, I’m here to help—reach out anytime to discuss your plans. Together, we can make sure you’re ready for the opportunities ahead.

Concentric Sales and Lettings has proudly served the Wolverhampton community since 1990, offering comprehensive services in property sales, lettings, and management. Whether you’re a landlord, a vendor, or a buy-to-let investor, we’re here to help you achieve your property goals.

Our expertise goes beyond traditional services, with bespoke options for self-managing landlords such as tenancy health checks, portfolio restructuring, and exclusive off-market selling solutions for those exiting the sector.

Ready to take the next step? Click here to explore our consultation options and connect with one of our property experts today: