UK Sales Market Update

Welcome to our Property Market blog, where we provide you with insightful information on the latest trends in the housing market. In this edition, we'll focus on the sales market, highlighting key statistics and offering valuable insights for both buyers and sellers.

 

1. Transaction Stats:

In January 2023, there was a 10% reduction in property sales recorded year on year, while new home purchases saw a 9% rise in completions. Mortgage approvals experienced a significant 46% reduction, with gross lending down approximately 7%. The decrease in mortgage approvals from the second half of the previous year largely explains the significant difference in lending statistics.

 

2. Buyer Demand:

According to the latest ARLA Housing Insight Report, there was a 30% fall in the number of prospective buyers registered across member branches in April 2023 compared to April 2022. Additionally, member branches reported a 70% increase in properties available for sale year-on-year. These figures indicate a drop in buyer demand, likely influenced by higher mortgage rates and economic challenges affecting affordability.

 

3. Market Activity and Pricing:

Rightmove reported that agreed sales numbers are currently just 3% behind the pre-pandemic market of 2019. The average price of properties coming to the market experienced a 1.8% month-on-month increase in May, reflecting robust activity levels and confidence. Sales agreed in May showed positive growth, and the level of negotiation from the asking price to the sale agreed price remained steady at around 3%.

 

4. Mortgage Rates and Affordability:

Despite an increase in the Bank of England base rate, mortgage rates have remained steady. The average 5-year fixed rate with a 15% deposit is now 4.56%, significantly lower than the 5.89% recorded last October. This decrease in mortgage rates contributes to maintaining home mover confidence in the market outlook.

 

5. House Price Growth and Market Activity:

The Zoopla house price index reveals a year-on-year price growth of 1.9%, the lowest in recent times compared to the 9.6% recorded a year ago. Prices have fallen by an average of 1.3% in the last 6 months due to higher mortgage rates and rising living costs. However, buyer confidence has improved, resulting in an increase in sales agreed, primarily driven by falling mortgage rates during the Spring.

 

Regional Property Price Movements:

The West Midlands region has seen year-on-year price growth of 3.5%, surpassing the national average of 1.9%. Birmingham ranks second among major cities, with a growth rate of 3.8%, just behind Nottingham at 3.9%. These figures indicate a significant difference compared to last April when the year-on-year price increase approached 10%.

 

The Outlook for the Sales Market:

Market activity in the UK sales market remains comparable to pre-pandemic levels. However, predictions suggest that mortgage rates may increase in the second half of the year, impacting affordability and pricing. It is anticipated that the year-end may see approximately 20% fewer transactions than the previous year. Sensible and realistic pricing is crucial for sellers, while buyers should not be discouraged as long as the numbers align. As the year progresses, increased stock levels may provide negotiation opportunities.

 

Conclusion:

The UK sales market demonstrates resilience, with activity levels approaching pre-pandemic norms. Understanding market dynamics, considering pricing strategies, and staying updated on mortgage rate changes are vital for both buyers and sellers. Seek professional advice and remain adaptable to navigate the ever-evolving property market successfully.

Thank you for reading

What's The Wolverhampton Rental Property Market Doing Right Now In 2022?

The landlords in Wolverhampton really started to embrace Lettings in 1990 after the change to the Housing Act in 1988, which introduced the Assured Shorthold Tenancy that we all operate under today, so what’s changed this year?

At that time, the Private Rented Sector was sitting at just 7% (7% of all properties being privately rented), but since then the market has grown fast.

Currently, 21% of the total housing stock is privately rented, which has come around due to an astounding level of growth, but in the last 2 years, this seems to have taken growth to an entirely new level.

We have seen masses of investors wanting to buy in the area, rents rocketing in price, and properties prices increasing to an unprecedented rate.

So, what does all this mean for Landlords in the PRS now?

As you can imagine we get asked a lot of questions daily, so we decided to answer the most common questions and put them here for you.

We also decided to look at our stats over the last 2 years (2020 and 2021) and interview Ali Durrant, our Branch Manager on the ground in our Wolverhampton branch on what he has seen over the last 24 months and in particular the beginning of this year (2022).

Here are our findings on the Lettings Market in Wolverhampton in 2022...

 

Where are the biggest demand areas in Wolverhampton from tenants right now?

We are seeing the biggest demand we have ever seen in history for rental property, in January, we were getting upwards of 50 pre-applications per property, it was crazy! So much so we had to build an automation system to deal with the hundreds and hundreds of tenant calls coming inbound to the office every day, it was chaos!

With that in mind, it seems any property right now rents fast, but if we had to select the best areas (the most commonly asked for areas) it seems North and East Wolverhampton is winning (2022), being the WV10 and WV11 postcodes (Oxley and Wednesfield).

It’s also worth mentioning the close follow-up areas being asked for are Penn, Bilston, and Willenhall too.

 

What type of property is there a shortage of right now?

In these strange times, there is a shortage of all types of property at the moment, which means it really is a landlord’s market, but there does appear to be more flats and smaller properties on the market than the larger 3 and 4-bed homes.

This is probably due to our experience of lockdowns. Many tenants are looking for that little extra space now than they would have probably accepted before because we all craved more space in the lockdowns of 2020 and 2021.

 

Which area is attracting investors right now?

It seems a real mixed bag right now, probably due to the level of activity being higher than we are used to seeing. HMO investors are trying to find pockets where article 4 isn’t in operation and are picking up already active HMOs near the hospital (WV11).

We also have people looking for the cheaper areas to buy to try to maximise cash flow, as well as quite a few more professional type investors that are looking to opt for more quality professional areas, which would normally attract higher capital appreciation.

 

How much have the average rents gone up in the last 2 years?

Properties in the UK (outside of London) have on average gone up by 12.6% year on year, and we are certainly able to confirm this increase and in some cases more. We have had a lot of landlords reviewing their rents, albeit some may have not been reviewed for a couple of years, with some increasing by as much as £200 per month (25% increase). In some cases, 

our system shows rents have increased for us locally by nearly 15% over the last 12 months on average.

 

How much have property prices gone up in your market?

The average property price in the West Midlands region is £262k. The average price of a property, however, has increased by £23.4k (10%) over the last twelve months. The average price of an established property is £261k. A point to note; the average price of a newly built property here is £301k.

 

Is there a market for furnished or all unfurnished now?

We tend to find that with smaller properties, yes furnished still works as long as the furnishings are of good quality, however, for the larger properties (2 bedrooms or above), normally unfurnished is preferred.

 

What’s the most asked for feature in properties now by tenants?

Generally, the most common thing people seem to want now other than more space is en-suites in HMOs, they seem to have become an essential item, and as a result, are actually becoming very difficult to let without these, and for single lets, parking and/or driveways go a long way too.

 

What would you buy now if you were buying Ali? 

I would buy a 3 bedroom home in an average to the above-average area, such as WV6, WV4, or WV8. We see high rent return in these areas, longer tenancies with families, which means fewer voids and less maintenance. With that in mind, I would also consider a modern 2-bed flat within a couple of miles of the hospital subject to lease, etc to get into the contracted NHS worker market.

 

Are the landlords that are buying 1-time landlords or multiple investors?

We seem to be getting a lot of portfolio buyers at the moment, adding to their existing portfolio and seeking opportunities from the older 20-year landlords that are selling now due to their mortgages expiring and retiring.

 

What gives the best return in your area?

We find modern 2-bed flats can be picked up for a good purchase price at the moment as the bulk of demand is in freehold, you need to be aware of shortening or expiring lease terms or have a plan/allowance for that, but it does mean better purchase prices can be negotiated

Also, there are a lot of 3-bed semis that generate £800 - £900pcm which can still be picked up for around £175,000 in mid-range areas, giving around a 6% gross yield, easy solid rental units, longer-term tenants, and decent capital appreciation too, so good all-rounders which should stand the test of time.

If you have any queries, want to discuss anything in this article, or want to discuss buying property, just email me at wolverhampton@concentricproperty.co.uk  

Alternatively, you can schedule a complimentary call with me here.

Spring Newsletter – Property Market Update

Sales Focus

I think it is safe to say that 2020 was a year like no other for obvious reasons! And from a property market point of view certainly a year which has defied expectations – with the UK experiencing its strongest annual price growth recording since the summer of 2016. To close out 2020, December alone saw over 129,000 homes change hands which is 32% higher than December of 2019 – this only added to what is always a mad rush in the middle of the month to hit clients exchange deadlines so they could enjoy Christmas with peace of mind.

The Mortgage Market has recovered with the bank of England reporting approvals to be up 3.7% on the previous year. Already this year we have seen more mortgage products released again, particularly on 90% loan to value mortgages which of course will be a big help to first-time buyers. And with an estimated 10% more sales agreed in 2020 than in 2019, the start of 2021 has been incredibly positive. The New Year itself was reported as being the busiest ever start to a year by our friends at Rightmove with visits to the website up by 30% and sales property enquiries up by 11% compared to the same period a year ago.

They have also reported that sales agreed in January are up 9% year on year. However – we have seen a new supply of properties coming to market reduce by 12% and the total number of homes for sale down by 6% as new sellers remain cautious while lockdown restrictions remain. This has caused a supply/demand imbalance and is only likely to maintain upward pressure on prices. But with surveys suggesting a large percentage of would-be sellers are holding off due to the pandemic, perhaps we can expect a surge of new supply towards the summer as lockdown measures are eased. Many sales are currently in the conveyancing process, in fact, there are approximately 650,000 transactions currently going through and the process has been a lot slower meaning a heightened level of stress for a lot of home movers – especially those who were pushing for the stamp duty deadline that was previously set for the end of this month. 

But that stress has been lifted for so many with the latest budget announcement as the stamp duty holiday has been extended to the 30th June – so there is some breathing space and opportunity. The chancellors budget announcement was on the 3rd March and represents a number of changes and factors for the housing market. Here are my 4 key takeaways: Starting with Stamp duty – so it is a 3-month extension from the end of March to the end of June meaning that stamp duty is only payable above the threshold of £500,000 which represents savings of up to £15,000 on purchases. This excludes the 3% second property surcharge for anybody who is unsure. – furthermore, to avoid a ‘cliff edge’ when this period ends, the tax-free threshold will then drop from £500,000 to £250,000 for a further three months before finally returning to the normal level of £125,000 from October 1st. This is huge news as savings of up to £5,000 can still be had for completions across the summer months.

Secondly, 95% mortgage guarantee scheme. – I said earlier that the return of 90% LTV mortgages has helped more first time buyers get back into the market with a 5% rise in demand from said buyers in the first 6 weeks of the year. And sales of between £100,000 and £250,000 have seen an increase of around 18% in the first couple of months of this year which is in keeping as buyers of lower value properties tend to be more reliant on the availability of finance – especially at higher loan to values.

So this mortgage guarantee scheme is part of a government initiative to turn generation rent into generation buy and means that the lenders who sign up for it (so far the likes of Lloyds, Santander, Barclays and HSBC are all involved) can purchase insurance from the government to cover some of their losses if the property is repossessed. A bit like an indemnity policy. So a safety net for the lenders to be comfortable offering high loan to value products to buyers again. And this is not just for the first-time buyer but also existing homeowners and those trying to re-mortgage with low equity. (this of course excludes buy to let mortgages which remain at a minimum 25% deposit required)

The third takeaway is Tax thresholds being frozen – a number of tax thresholds including those for capital gains tax and inheritance tax, will be frozen until April 2026. – Capital gains threshold will be held at £12,300 for the 21/22 tax year whilst inheritance tax remains at £325,000 (meaning tax payable only kicks in above those amounts.

So who does this affect?

The move to freeze CGT means anyone selling an investment property or a second home will have to pay capital gains tax of 28% on any increase in the property’s value since they first bought it above £12,300.

Couples who jointly own a property can combine their CGT allowance to £24,600. Inheritance tax is paid at 40% on all assets worth more than £325,000 that are not left to a spouse or civil partner, although this threshold increases to £500,000 if you leave your home to your children or grandchildren. Of course, the speculation over a hike in capital gains tax has already seen some landlords act and we have seen a spike in the sale of previously rented homes. With the 5 year freeze this may well reduce the number of landlords thinking of selling again.

And finally, the extension to the furlough scheme will be extended until the end of September. I have put this in here for 2 reasons: firstly if the government is continuing to support people’s incomes who can’t currently, work then they are less likely to struggle to keep up mortgage payments meaning we are less likely to see a spike in forced sales or repossessions that some have been speculating. And secondly, for all of you landlords with tenants who are being supported by the furlough scheme it means they are less likely to struggle to upkeep your rent payments! That’s a definite positive for all of us! It really is no surprise that reports are stating that we are experiencing one of the busiest ever Spring markets!

 

Lettings Focus

To start with we are still seeing average rents across the UK rising with a 1.4% increase across the last year. Interestingly though Zoopla reports some major cities to have decreased with London most notably dropping by around 8% and more locally Birmingham is apparently down by almost 1% year on year. So taking London out of the equation and the UK increase would in fact be more like 2.5% year on year. And this is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. 

So, guys, I would always encourage regular tenancy compliance checks and a rent review is something I personally tie in with those checks as its always good to know where you stand versus current market rates. A few other interesting points to note starting with a look at where the demand is at its strongest and it appears that commuter belts are stronger than main cities themselves right now. So take our area for example...

Rents in central Birmingham fell by -3.4% in the year to December 2020, but average rents across neighboring boroughs, including Bromsgrove, Sandwell, and Wolverhampton rose by an average of 5.3%. And as my area is Wolverhampton, I just want to advocate why our area is great to invest in for anybody who is actively looking...

1)We are seen as the best value commuter area outside of Birmingham – this takes into account the average cost of rent or mortgage payment plus annual train ticket. Second to us is Cannock! 

2)The average Gross rental yields are now above 6%

3)Tenant demand is unbelievably high right now and there is a real supply issue in the local rental market. – We have personally seen a further 50% increase in the number of tenants registered as looking for a property so far this year and Rightmove reported an increase or 22% in enquiries on properties for let in the New Year. All perfect ingredients for a buy-to-let and I will leave that there but if anybody wants to discuss further I do have a Buy-to-let advisory service which you can contact me if you want some help or are interested!

So that concludes the Spring property report and I do hope you found it useful or at least interesting! If anybody wants to share their views or opinions with me or perhaps would like some advice, please do contact me – I would love to hear from you!

 

Ali Durrant

Branch Manager of Concentric Sales & Lettings

ali@concentricproperty.co.uk

Build To Rent

In recent years, there has been significant growth in the build to rent sector, which reports suggest will see heavy investment over the coming months and years, as the demand for privately rented properties hits an all time high. So, what exactly is the build to rent phenomenon, and could it be a threat to private landlords in the UK? Let’s take a look.

Build to rent explained

We’ve seen for a while now that the home-ownership rates have been falling, as people are finding it much more difficult to secure a mortgage, and indeed save for a decent deposit to buy a home. Alongside this, factors such as population growth, changes in the economic landscape, and a shift in people’s perception of the rental market have all contributed to the recent demand for more privately rented housing, not least so in the social housing sector.

While this has been a good thing for landlords, we’ve also seen some major changes in legislation, brought in to protect tenants, but which has left a lot of landlords wondering what the future holds. And there are some big players who have caught on to this, making build to rent an attractive option.

Following the announcement back in 2017 by Sajid Javid about plans to reform the housing sector by building new homes to keep up with the huge demand, we’ve seen a lot of new properties spring up in cities, towns and villages all over the country, and this is one of the key things that has allowed the build to rent movement to take such a big leap forward.

Rather that homes being built to be bought by landlords looking to rent them out, it has given the opportunity for companies to invest in properties built specifically for the rental market.

Corporate clout

There are some big players putting up the money for build to rent projects, and the worry is that the average landlord isn’t going to be able to compete with such competition. Remember that changing tenant perception we mentioned earlier? People in general have a much higher expectation when they’re looking for homes, because whereas before rentals were perhaps seen as a temporary move while they saved for their own home, rental properties these days are more permanent. And so tenants need homes that will allow them to grow, raise a family, and do so with all of the convenience and comfort expected in a modern home.

In this, landlords have a much higher standard to live up to – you can no longer get away with poor décor, inadequate kitchens and bathrooms, and shoddy finishes. Your tenants are looking for longer-term accommodation, and so will need a home that will stand the test of time.

And this is really where the corporate investors are able to put their money down and give the tenants what they need. Where does that leave private landlords, though?

The options for private landlords

It’s been estimated that a massive £75 billion will be invested to the professionally managed private rented sector in the UK by 2025. That’s due to the growing demand for housing across the country. It’s a big number, and it’s even bigger if you consider that right now, there are huge numbers of individual landlords exiting the property market.

Lettings is an increasingly difficult industry to be in, and it’s tough for landlords. There’s no denying that. And yes, there are landlords out there who are struggling, who can’t keep up with the changes in legislation, and are taking a huge hit in income after the introduction of the Tenant Fee Ban earlier this year. But for those of us who are fighting through it, and despite everything, are determined to maintain growth and make thongs better for our industry, what does the future hold? Are we doomed to be held at ransom by these big companies?

Well, I doubt it – and here’s why.

On the whole, the build to rent sector is aimed at a specific client. You’d find, in reality, that many build to rent properties tend to be either blocks of flats, which are quick to build (and therefore quick to start getting a return on), or small units of apartments aimed at people like students, single people, young couples, or the retired community (who typically downsize when they retire or are widowed).

That’s not, in most cases, the market we aim for as landlords. We know that our income mainly comes from the other end of the scale – those who are starting on their career path, and are growing their families. Those who are looking for a family home, where they can stay long-term.

So really, there are two possible options. And these depend on your long-term needs.

Investing

It might be that you’re in a position where you’ve either grown a successful portfolio, and are looking to expand your growth in other directions. Or you might see the benefit of selling up, and putting your money into something which gets you a guaranteed return for little effort.

And yes, there are benefits to investing in build to let, if you’ve got the funds to do so. Perhaps you are one of those landlords mentioned earlier, who are seriously thinking about exiting the market in this difficult new landscape. In which case, placing yur cash in something like build to rent could be a viable option.

Sticking with the current market

Your other option, of course, is to put all of your efforts into that portion of the market you know so well. If you still have that passion for the game, and are prepared to ride out the changes, evolve with them, and push through in order to grow your current portfolio, then the option to stay true to yourself and stay on your chosen career path is what you need to focus on.

I think it’s vital that there are landlords still prepared to cater for this niche, as there will always be the demand for good, well maintained, family homes. And that’s really what we are here to deliver. And if we can do that with professionalism and a personal service, then we are doing justice to our industry.

Are Flats A Better Investment Than House

With legislation getting tighter and tighter within the lettings industry, the debate between landlords on whether to invest in houses or flats is back on the agenda. So where is your money best placed? The answer isn’t as straight forward as you might think – let’s take a look at some of the pros and cons for each.

Spot the difference

Some people might tell you that a new trend is emerging, and that many landlords are favouring flats over houses because they tend to give a higher yield in an increasingly difficult market. And they’re not entirely wrong – flats are cheaper to buy than houses, and therefore can bring in more cash in rent – there are other things that you might want to consider.

You might be attracted to investing in a flat based on the higher yield, the lower purchase price, and the ease of maintenance, which are all very valid. But bear in mind that a flat is a very different animal to a house – and therefore requires a different set of management skills.

Flats – the advantages

Typically, you will find that the purchase price of a flat is lower than a house, in fact in the right area, you could be looking at a saving of up to two thirds of the cost of a house. Of course, this means that yields will be much higher, increasing your profit margin.

The market for flats is very different than for a house – so if you are in an area where there is a demand from single people, young professionals, or even young couples who are looking to start out with a small, affordable property, then that’s who you need to be focusing on when you’re looking for a tenant. Cost of living has risen over recent years, which has increased demand for these types of properties.

You can save money in maintenance costs, as in most cases, the freeholder or management company will be responsible for the upkeep of flats and communal areas.

Flats – the disadvantages

You might find that lenders are less willing to finance flats, due to a higher risk. On top of this, flats often have a higher turnover of tenants as they are often taken by single people, who then move on when they find a partner, or young couples who move out when they start a family, and thus need somewhere bigger.

Due to that higher turnover, there is the added concern of having to go in and clean up and redecorate more frequently, so that you can attract new tenants. However, flats are less likely to be empty for long, which is a positive.

Unlike houses, you have less freedom to make significant alterations to a flat, and so it might prove very difficult if you are looking to increase the value for sale. Other than general modernisation, such as kitchens, bathrooms, and windows, unless the flat is in desperate need of modernisation, you’ll be stuck if you are investing for profit. In this case, the value really is all in the rental yield.

House or flat?

Whether you invest in a house or a flat really is down to your particular circumstances, the area you are in, and the amount of money and time you are able to invest. Flats can be great money-spinners, as long as you know what you’re going into, do your research, and are prepared to put the work in to find the right tenants. Where the market for flat might be smaller, more niche, and less long-term, having them as part of a healthy portfolio, along with family-friendly houses, can pay off in the long term.